Issue 13:01, Sunday, January 1, 2011
www.vetjobs.com
VetJobs is an appropriate employment service delivery system for EEOC, VEVRAA/JVA and OFCCP compliance support!
The VetJobs Early Eagle is for member employers, recruiters, friends and supporters of VetJobs. Feel free to forward this newsletter to friends and other employers.
This issue sponsored by TECHEXPO Top Secret and CRI University
Contents:
1. Message from the Top – 2012 Market Projections
2. DOL Sets Historic Hiring Goal for Federal Contractors and Subcontractors
3. Top Cities for Growth
4. Rising Wages in Tough Times
5. Overwhelming Majority of Workers Plan to Look for New Job in 2012
6. National Guard (in Federal Status) and Reserve Activated as of December 27, 2011
7. Significant Events this Month in Military History
Thank you for reading the VetJobs Early Eagle employer newsletter. If you like this newsletter and what VetJobs and the VFW do to assist veterans and their family member find employment, please go to http://www.weddles.com/poll.htm and vote VetJobs for the WEDDLE’s User’s Choice Award!
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1. Message from the Top
Welcome to 2012! Starting at midnight December 31, 2011, you have 525,600 minutes to spend in 2012. Your success in recruiting quality employees and in your career depends on how well you spend those 525,600 minutes, as well as the attitude you take when facing problems! Even when times are tough, keeping a positive attitude can mean a lot in terms of your success. And when it is hard to find quality employees, you know to use VetJobs!
VetJobs is now in its thirteenth year of service to employers wanting to hire transitioning military, veterans, National Guard & Reserve, and their family members. 2011 was a difficult but good year for VetJobs. While many job boards are down in sales and job postings and other job boards have gone out of business, VetJobs sales finished 2011 up over 11%. In this deep recessionary market, that is an accomplishment! It is you the member employers that use VetJobs that have helped keep VetJobs in the forefront. We thank you and look forward to working with you more in 2012!
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On January 16 we celebrate Martin Luther King Day. MLK Day was founded as a holiday promoted by labor unions. After King’s death in 1968, Congressman John Conyers introduced a bill in Congress to make King’s birthday a national holiday, highlighting King’s activism on behalf of trade unions. Unions did most of the promotion for the holiday throughout the 1970s. In 1976, trade unions helped to elect Jimmy Carter, who endorsed the King Day bill. At the White House Rose Garden on November 2, 1983, Reagan signed a bill creating a federal holiday to honor King. It was observed for the first time on January 20, 1986.
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On the economic front, the country continues in the economic malaise that was started by the events put into motion from the Community Reinvestment Act in 1977. After 30 years the Act ultimately crashed our financial system and has given the United States record unemployment. The promises of a “Summer of Recovery” and the lowering of the unemployment rate to 8% have yet to occur.
In December the government reported CES unemployment rate went from 9.0% to 8.6% with only 120,000 new jobs created. Mathematically that is impossible but DOL got to 8.6% by saying 315,000 people dropped out of the workforce. Many people have asked DOL the methodology used to determine how many have “dropped out” and basically are told it is done by a formula. I suspect that we really do not know how many have actually dropped out. Some economic analysts have put back all the hundreds of thousands that DOL says have “dropped out” and discover that the CES unemployment rate is over 11%, which is probably closer to the truth. But this is an election year so you have to expect games. To be fair, every president since Eisenhower has played a little with the unemployment rates.
Please understand that to move the unemployment rate down 1% you have to have at least a 3.5% to 4.0% per month GDP growth rate for a year. At this point in time, our economic growth is anemic. For more on what the employment picture will look like, see my 2012 Job Market Predictions below.
At 34 months and counting, this is the longest streak of greater than 8% unemployment since tracking started in 1948! For more on this issue, see Steve Tobak’s commentary on CBS at http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505125_162-57337159/lies-damn-lies-and-unemployment-data/?tag=mncol;lst;4.
After three years of high unemployment, falling home values, failing banks, municipal and state governments going broke and the incredible $14.3 trillion debt the administration has fostered on American taxpayers, it is easy to understand why the consumer confidence index has not been doing well. While hard for some to understand, this administration has created more debt than all the previous administrations combined going back to President Washington! Just as you as an individual cannot borrow your way out of debt, countries that try to borrow their way out of debt collapse into bankruptcy. That is why the credit rating for the United States has been lowered and that affects every citizen!
There are other factors specifically affecting companies which are the true source of job creation as governments do not create jobs, companies create jobs.
One is the economic malaise that has brought constant pressure to perform which is causing workforce fatigue. There is an all-out drive to increase productivity, drive quality, reduce costs and create efficiencies in every aspect of US industry.
Another big unknown is election year politics. As Oliver Bell points out in his 2012 Labor & Employee Relations Trends, there is concern about what candidates will do in the process of seeking the presidency as well as other elected offices that will impact employers and employees. Amazingly, President Obama’s decision to postpone construction of the Keystone XL pipeline means tens of thousands of new US jobs won’t be created, jobs veterans could have been filling. Ultimately, the Keystone XL Pipeline would have brought 400,000 new jobs! And the administration wants to raise taxes to compensate for the millions of lost tax dollars the pipeline would have generated.
Another big concern is the ever increasing federal, state and local regulations that hinder businesses. Some regulation is necessary. But DOL, EPA, DOE and other agencies have gone past what is basically needed and entered into the realm of seriously hindering our economy.
Recent reports from EEOC and OFCCP indicate that litigation rates are well above normal and financial consequences are more severe. If employers are bad actors then this is a good thing. However, if this is the result of government overreach, then employer’s and citizen’s tax dollars are working against their own best interests.
In the area or labor relations, government pushed rules that lead to easier organizing for unions will drive up employer administrative costs 17% to 25%! That is what has been found in studies to be the administrative cost difference of managing in a union shop state versus a right-to-work state.
Hidden are the hard to see costs of unionization that will rise as organized labor pushes their “each one, reach one” growth campaign. There are 16 million union members in the US, 7% in the private sector and 35% in the government sector. The easing of organizing rules by some projections would create the circumstances where unions could increase their current membership by 100%, or another 16 million. The cash windfall to unions would exceed $5 billion, which means more money for certain politicians.
If any of our readers can give me an example of where a company ran smoother with lower costs and better profits after unionization, I would appreciate hearing about it as to date I have yet to find such an example.
But all is not doom and gloom. The country is slowly moving forward as companies are starting to hire again. We see this at VetJobs as our job postings have been up 3% to 11% over same day last year. That is good. While it is tough for the unemployed, there are jobs available.
Edgar Ortiz, CEO of Strategic Analytic Solutions, Inc. has laid out very concisely what is needed to get the US economy turned around.
First, he notes that a strong and growing manufacturing sector is vital to our prosperity, standard of living and national security. To fix the manufacturing issue, he suggests following the National Manufacturing Association’s recommendation of reversing the current course of expanding trade deficits, outsourcing jobs overseas and ballooning national debt. Does it make sense to outsource the manufacture of defense equipment, ships, planes, etc. to non-US companies? I think not.
Second, fix the tax rates. The American tax rates are the highest in the world. Lower rates provide an incentive to allow corporations to repatriate billions of dollars in profits from overseas operations so they can invest capital in the United States economy.
Third recommendation is trade policies. Our government needs to demand greater transparency and compliance from our trade partners. Illegal subsidies, forced transfer of technology, dumping and intellectual property theft make it difficult and costly for American businesses to compete fairly.
And lastly, improve education and skills. Technology continues to advance at a rapid pace increasing the demand for workers with specialized skills. Everyone does not need to go to college, which is why the United States has a shortage of qualified candidates in many disciplines.
Put bluntly, America cannot survive on its current socialist path of growing deficits, increasing foreign debt, underperforming students and ballooning national debt. The longer we postpone the making of the tough choices needed to correct the imbalances and reverse the move towards socialism back to a free enterprise economy, the higher will be the cost passed to future generations.
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Each January it is my custom to make labor and market predictions. It is a challenge this year as there are many conflicting economic trends in the market. The country is improving, albeit slowly, by disproportionate rates depending on location. Critical is whether you are in a union shop state or a right-to-work state. The Southeast and Southwest are growing the best, but the Northeast and union shop states are having serious problems. With that said, here are my baker’s dozen 2012 predictions:
2012 Market Predictions
1. A high unemployment rate is here to stay
Unemployment will probably remain in the 8% to 9% range throughout 2012, unless the DOL decides for political reasons more people have “dropped out”. The recovery will continue at a relatively slow pace in 2012, with real GDP creeping up to 2.0% or slightly higher. Third quarter GDP growth for 2011 was 1.8%.
2. Labor shortages will persist
In spite of high unemployment, labor shortages of qualified candidates will continue to grow in the following areas: healthcare, petroleum, technicians, mechanics, welders, engineers and manufacturing. While some labor reports like to tout that there are 5.87 unemployed people for every available job that is not the way to look at the problem. Employers do not hire someone just because they are a living being. Employers hire to fill a need thus look for “qualified” candidates. When one looks at the unemployment problem from the standpoint of how many qualified applicants exist, you get negative numbers in occupations like plumbers, electricians, welders, nurses, technicians, etc. The good news for those seeking work is many of Manpower’s top 10 hardest jobs to fill don’t require a college degree, so they’re more accessible.
3. Jobs are starting to come back to the United States!
You will be reading a lot this year about “On-Shoring”. Some of the work that had been more efficient or economical to perform overseas has reached an economic tipping point. The fact that many of the countries to which jobs were exported do not protect copyrights and patents is also a factor. Global wages in manufacturing are moving upward. This is similar to what happened after WWII when it seemed everything was “Made in Japan”. As the Japanese work force became skilled, they wanted higher wages and the Japanese companies off-shored their jobs.
4. The workforce will be older
In the last decade or so, the life expectancy of the average U.S. citizen has increased every year. As a direct result, companies are seeing their employment populations develop more and more age-related disabilities and become more diverse. Companies may have as many as five generations of people in their workforce.
5. Demand for knowledge workers will increase.
As technology constantly improves, the need for qualified IT related employees continues to grow. There are shortages of qualified DBAs, network administrators, certain programmers, certified internet security candidates, etc.
6. Job openings will take longer to fill
There will be job openings aplenty in the trades as baby boomers retire but there is a shortage of qualified replacements. Many of the unemployed will need to be trained in new skill sets. Example: qualified welders are now making $45 an hour with lots of overtime in TX, MT, ND, SD and WY due to the shortage of qualified welders!
7. Health-care careers overall will likely enjoy job security.
According to the U.S. Labor Department, 13 of the 20 fastest-growing occupations through 2014 are related to health care.
8. Regulatory concerns
Several federal agencies, DOL, NLRB, NMB, FLRB, EEOC, and OFCCP have recently made or proposed changes that will negatively impact employers in 2012 driving up costs and the need for lawyers
9. Employees will be job hopping at increasing rates
From The Herman Group (www.hermangroup.com) we learn that the overwhelming majority of employees plan to change employers in 2012. Right Management found that 84% of the respondents to an online poll said they “plan to look for a new position in 2012”. That number is almost double the number found by Randstad in their recent poll.
10. Workforce development will increase in importance.
As communities realize the disparity between desired skills and those skills people actually possess, the issue of workforce development will become more important.
11. The United States and Europe will lag behind Asia and South America in job growth and profits
Asia has now become the major financial center and many Americans are migrating to Asia to find jobs. While their cost to manufacture is generally lower than the United States, quality and legal issues have actually caused many companies to return to the US. But if you are an investor or involved in finance, Asia is still very attractive.
12. Older workers will be more highly valued.
Older workers will be in higher demand as the baby boomers move into retirement. Public and private sector employers will be facing labor shortages and they want to retain the intellectual capital that their older workers have from being in the workforce. Older workers offer stability and maturity not found in many younger workers.
13. Employers continue to be dissatisfied with public schools
Managers are frustrated with the low level of preparation of the entry level workforce coming from many of the public school systems. Corporate executives are demanding greater performance from public schools, technical, community, and four-year colleges. It is disappointing that many high school graduates cannot read properly, write a letter, do basic math or received adequate education in history, business and economics. 25% of applicants today cannot pass the basic military entry test. Political correctness and teacher unions combined with legal issues, ACLU law suits and having to deal with unfunded federal mandates has brought our educational system to an all-time low. The public primary and secondary education system has to be improved if America is to maintain a strong economy. Interestingly, home schooled and private school students are excelling on the SAT!
It will be interesting to see where we are at the end of 2012.
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Finally, as employers I beseech you to hire members of the National Guard and Reserve (NG&R), as they are the ones who constitute the overwhelming majority of the veterans who are having difficulties finding work! The constant call-ups of the NG&R will subside now that the United States has pulled out of Iraq. So please make it a point to give them a job. They fought for our freedoms. Do not make them have to fight to find a job. Your assistance is appreciated. If you want assistance in this area, give me a call at 877-838-5627.
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As always, if there is anything we at VetJobs can do for you, please do not hesitate to call or email.
Remember, Freedom Is Never Free – Support Our Armed Forces and Veterans
Best regards,
Ted Daywalt
President
/—January Early Eagle sponsor is TECHEXPO Top Secret—-\
TECHEXPO Top Secret’s next job fairs are:
1/18, TECHEXPO Top Secret Career Fair, The Ritz Carlton Tysons Corner, 11810 Sunrise Valley Drive
Reston, VA, 10:00 AM to 3:00 PM. Register at www.techexpousa.com
1/19, TECHEXPO Top Secret Career Fair, BWI Marriott, 1743 West Nursery Road, Baltimore, MD, 10:00 AM to 3:00 PM. Register at www.techexpousa.com
1/24, TECHEXPO Top Secret Career Fair, San Diego Convention Center, 111 West Harbor Drive, San Diego, CA, 10:00 AM to 3:00 PM. Register at www.techexpousa.com
1/25, TECHEXPO Top Secret Career Fair, BWI Marriott, DoubleTree Colorado Springs, 1175 East Cheyenne Mountain Blvd, Colorado Springs, CO, 10:00 AM to 3:00 PM. Register at www.techexpousa.com
TECHEXPO Top Secret job fairs bring you face to face with security-cleared professionals. For 2011 event schedule, contact Nancy Mathew 212-655-4505 x225 or NMathew@TechExpoUSA.com. http://www.TechExpoUSA.com
\—–Please visit your Early Eagle sponsor TECHEXPO Top Secret —-/
2. DOL Sets Historic Hiring Goal for Federal Contractors and Subcontractors
The U.S. Department of Labor is proposing a new rule that would require federal contractors and subcontractors to set a hiring goal of having 7% of their workforces be people with disabilities, among other requirements. The department’s Office of Federal Contract Compliance Programs invites public comment on this proposal, which was published in the December 9 edition of the Federal Register.
OFCCP’s proposed rule would strengthen the affirmative action requirements established in Section 503 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973 obligating federal contractors and subcontractors to ensure equal employment opportunities for qualified workers with disabilities. The proposed regulatory changes detail specific actions contractors must take in the areas of recruitment, training, record keeping and policy dissemination — similar to those which have long been required to promote workplace equality for women and minorities. In addition, the rule would clarify OFCCP’s expectations for contractors by providing specific guidance on how to comply with the law.
/—January Early Eagle sponsor is CRI University—\
CRI University provides informative and dynamic one-hour webinars and recorded educational sessions on important HR topics that impact every employer who employs fifteen or more people. CRI University topics are offered both live and as recorded sessions for registrants who choose to view the materials and listen to the recording at their leisure.
These webinars and educational sessions are as important to CEOs, COOs, and CFOs as they are for HR personnel due to the myriad of changes in employment laws, regulations, discrimination findings and court case findings in 2009 and thus far in 2011.
January webinar is:
EEOC and OFCCP Compliance
Thursday, January 12, 2012 11:00 AM Central Time
Each webinar is $65 and the website to register for a webinar is www.criuniversity.com
\—–Please visit your Early Eagle sponsor CRI University at www.criuniversity.com ——/
3. Top Cities for Growth
NewGeography’s top cities for job growth include five Texas towns: Fort Hood, El Paso, College Station, Midland and Austin. Also on the list: Bismarck, ND, New Orleans, LA, Dubuque, IA, Manhattan, KS and Pascagoula, MS
4. Rising Wages in Tough Times
While past data can’t predict future raises, it can tell you where average salaries continued to go up during the recession. The Brookings Institute’s MetroMonitor Index shows nearly 50 cities where wages have been rising since the recession began at the end of 2007 through the first quarter of 2011. The top 10 were: Bakersfield, CA, 6.8% wage increase; Modesto, CA, 4.5%; Palm Bay, FL, 3.7%; District of Columbia, 3.5%; Augusta, GA, 3.3%; El Paso, TX, 3.0%; Fresno, CA, 3.0%; Virginia Beach, VA, 2.8%; San Diego, CA, 2.6%; Oklahoma City, OK and Wichita, KS, 2.5%
5. Overwhelming Majority of Workers Plan to Look for New Job in 2012
The Herman Group (www.hermangroup.com) reports that in a study recently released by Right Management, 84% of the respondents to an online poll said they “plan to look for a new position in 2012”. That number is almost double the number found by Randstad in their recent poll. Only 7% said a move was “unlikely” or that they expected to stay in their current positions.
6. National Guard (in Federal Status) and Reserve Activated as of December 27, 2011
The total number currently on active duty from the Army National Guard and Army Reserve is 66,935; Navy Reserve, 4,421; Air National Guard and Air Force Reserve, 10,180; Marine Corps Reserve, 5,220, and the Coast Guard Reserve, 769. This brings the total National Guard and Reserve personnel who have been activated to 87,525, including both units and individual augmentees. A cumulative roster of all National Guard and Reserve personnel who are currently activated may be found on line at http://www.defense.gov/news/d20111227ngr.pdf .
7. Significant Events this Month in Military History
1777 – General George Washington defeats the British led by British General Lord Charles Cornwallis, at Princeton, New Jersey (War of Independence)
1911 – Naval Lieutenant Eugene Ely became the first man ever to land an airplane on the deck of a ship, the converted cruiser USS Pennsylvania, in San Francisco Bay.
1915 – Congress established the United States Coast Guard.
1923 – American occupation forces, stationed in Germany since the close of World War I, were recalled.
1942 – U.S. and Filipino troops complete their withdrawal to a new defensive line along the base of the Bataan peninsula (World War II)
1944 – Allies Land at Anzio, Italy (World War II)
1945 – The Battle of the Bulge ended (World War II)
1951 – Chinese communist forces captured Seoul, Korea, from United Nations troops (Korean War)
1951 – Operation Thunderbolt began (Korean War)
1959 – Fidel Castro took control of Cuba.
1966 – American forces move into the Mekong Delta for the first time (Vietnam War)
1967 – Operation Cedar Falls began against the Communist-held Iron Triangle area north of Saigon (Vietnam War)
1968 – Battle of Khe Sanh began (Vietnam War)
1968 – Tet Offensive began (Vietnam War)
1968 – Battle of Hue began (Vietnam War)
1973 – Signing of the Vietnam Peace Accord (Vietnam War)
1991 – Allies start Operation Desert Storm with attacks on Iraq (Persian Gulf War)
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VetJobs is exclusively sponsored and partially owned by the Veterans of Foreign Wars of the United States (www.vfw.org) and endorsed by the Vietnam Veterans of America (www.vva.org), the Naval Reserve Association (www.navy-reserve.org), the Veterans of Modern Warfare (www.vmwusa.org), the Student Veterans of America (www.studentveterans.org), the Military Order of the Purple Heart (www.purpleheart.org), Hope4Heroes (www.hope4heroes.org) and The Enlisted Retired Association (www.trea.org).
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