RSSIssue 9:01, Tuesday, January 1, 2008
www.vetjobs.com
The Veteran Eagle is a newsletter for veterans, transitioning military, their family members and friends and supporters of VetJobs.
VetJobs is exclusively sponsored and partially owned by the Veterans of Foreign Wars of the United States (www.vfw.org) and endorsed by The Vietnam Veterans of America (www.vva.org), The Naval Reserve Association (www.navy-reserve.org), and The Veterans of Modern Warfare (www.modernveterans.com).
This month’s Veteran Eagle is sponsored by BNSF Railway
Contents:
1. Message from the Top – 2008 Projections
2. Army Reserve Study Participants Wanted – Impact of Reunification on Soldier Families
3. Workplace Pet Peeves
4. Forbes.com list of the ten best-paying blue-collar jobs
5. National Suicide Prevention
6. National Guard and Reserve mobilized as of January 2, 2008
7. Significant events this month in military history
Thank you for reading this VetJobs Veteran Eagle newsletter. If you like the newsletter and what VetJobs, the VFW and other veteran service organizations do to assist veterans and their family members find employment, please go to http://www.weddles.com/poll.htm and vote VetJobs for the WEDDLE’s User’s Choice Award!
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1. Message from the Top – 2008 Projections
Welcome to 2008 and the ninth year of service to veterans and their family members by VetJobs. We look forward to continuing to serve you throughout this next year. VetJobs is seeing record numbers of jobs being posted with new employers who want to reach the veteran and transitioning military candidate market and their family members. Thanks to your support, VetJobs is the leading military job board on the Internet today!
January is when I give my workplace predictions for the coming year. Before giving my predictions for 2008, let us look at how well my 2007 predictions came to past. Last January I predicted the following:
1. Retention for employers will become issue number one
Result: Still true
2. Job hopping will continue to accelerate
Result: It occurred
3. Successful companies will continue to layoff employees
Result: This is still happening and is just part of the natural business cycle
4. More employees will be working from home
Result: Not occurring in all industries, but it is occurring, primarily in white collar type jobs
5. Recruiting is being transformed by the Internet
Result: This has occurred
6. The new political environment will affect the labor market
Result: This has occurred, notably with DOL regulations and immigration
7. Older workers will be more highly valued
Result: This is occurring primarily in forward thinking companies
8. The Importance of recruitment ad agencies will grow
Result: This has occurred
9. The use of business intelligence for recruiting will come into its own
Result: This is still in its infancy, but will continue to grow
10. Offshoring and reverse-offshoring will continue
Result: This continues to occur
11. Out-sourcing of jobs from union states to non-union states will continue
Result: Definitely occurring
12. The use of Internet networking sites will expand
Result: This has occurred, but effectiveness is still being debated
13. Employers are increasingly dissatisfied with public schools
Result: Absolutely!
All these predictions have occurred in varying degrees and many are still affecting the labor market today. My predictions are trends, and some trends continue for years, not months. The American mentality of looking for “quick fixes” is frequently frustrated in the labor arena where trends can take years to develop and years to pass.
My predictions for 2008 will not meet muster with certain segments of our society, but that is because the United States is in a full blown political cycle and there are those who for political reasons would like to see the United States fail and go into a recession. I find that some in the media who make predictions regarding the labor market and the economy are being driven more by politics rather than looking objectively at the economic fundamentals.
The economy of the United States is fundamentally sound. There are problems in the mortgage and housing sectors. And the United States will see a bump in the first quarter of 2008. But one should remember that the country has frequently had economic bumps between recessions. Bumps are a natural event in any economy. While some sectors are up, others are down.
The danger is political hysteria which can affect the fundamentals in a negative way. So when reading the many predictions that will be coming out in the press this month, consider the purposes and the political agenda they may be pushing.
When reviewing my predictions, no one prediction stands on its own. When one is dealing with economic and employment issues, many of the issues are intertwined.
With all that said, here are my “baker’s dozen” 2008 economic and labor predictions:
1. There will be NO recession in 2008; but there will be a general slowing of the economy in the first quarter
As Jonathan Golub, chief investment strategist for Bear Stearns stated in the last week of December, “It is increasingly clear that the U.S. consumer did not roll over during the holiday shopping season. We do not believe a consumer-led recession is in the cards.” Golub went on to say that “Employment growth and fewer job cuts than in previous economic slowdowns will help Americans maintain spending.”
Here are my reasons for the United States not going into a recession at this time:
a. Historically, recessions do not give much warning before occurring. In fact, most recessions have come about rather quickly, almost as a surprise. If the U.S. were to go into a recession in 2008, it would be the most heralded recession in our history. Do not forget about the political season’s effect on predictions about recessions.
b. Recessions tend to occur generally eight to ten years apart. Since we exited the “hiring” recession in 2004/2005 time frame, it would be much too early for a recession, but appropriate for a bump or correction.
c. What most people cite for the United States going into a recession is the financial situation created by the sub-prime mortgage mess. It helps to put things in perspective. The Savings and Loan crisis of 1991/1992 was 9% of the gross domestic product of the United States. The sub-prime mortgage fiasco is barely 2%. Many analysts were warning about the sub-prime issue in early 2007. I personally think this issue has remained in the fore front for so long due mainly to the political season and the fact that many of the lenders that made such incredibly bad business decisions want the government to bail them out using our tax dollars. While it can be argued that the crisis was created by earlier government policies, I will leave it to the politicians and knowledgeable economists to ferret that one out. The bottom line is the sub-prime mortgage issue is not a big enough crisis to put the U.S. economy into recession.
d. International trade for the U.S. is now at historic levels. This trade is more than off setting any losses in jobs from the subprime mortgage debacle and is continuing to create new jobs nationally. Strong exports, aided by a weak dollar that makes American goods cheaper in foreign markets should also lend support until lower interest rates spark faster growth in the second half of 2008.
e. Businesses are poised to withstand an economic contraction. Businesses in a wide range of industries outside of the housing sector have nimbly adjusted their production processes and inventories are very lean. As demand picks up, more hiring will be required.
f. Spending on U.S. construction projects hit a two-month high in November, rising by 0.1% on strong outlays for public, state and local construction projects. Spending on home construction has continued its slide, falling by 2.5% in November. But the overall number was a surprise. Economists were expecting construction spending to fall by 0.5% in November, not increase. Year over year, however, all construction spending is down by only 0.1%.
g. And finally the Federal Reserve monetary policy points toward sustained growth in nominal spending. Despite the housing financial turmoil, credit remains available.
The real event that would put the United States into a recession would be the 35% tax increase as proposed by some members of Congress. Such a move definitely would halt the economy and put the country into a recession.
2. National unemployment in the United States will continue to remain at or below 5.0%
The unemployment rate in November again remained at 4.7%. With normal unemployment being 5%, the United States is in a serious labor shortage that will continue through 2008. As discussed in a previous newsletter, the Manpower survey reported that only 9% of companies intend to decrease their workforce, 27% expect to significantly increase their workforce, and 64% intend to maintain their current level of hiring! These types of numbers do not portend a recession! In fact, such hiring plans indicate that the United States will continue to have a tight labor market.
As I travel the country, the number one problem I hear from companies is finding enough qualified candidates to fill their open positions. It should be noted that the Conference Board reported that the yearly growth in help wanted ads online has increased 9.7% at the end of 2007.
One of the positive results of the labor shortage is that older workers will be more highly valued
3. Skill shortages will hinder companies, especially in IT, engineering, management and skilled trades, both in the United States and internationally
A key trend I expect to see continue in 2008 is a shortage internationally of critical skills. An argument can be made that the United States does not have a shortage of people to work, but rather has a shortage of people with the requisite skills needed by industry and government. This skills shortage will impede corporate investments and long range planning for growth. This trend emerged in during 2007 and I expect it to continue to strengthen in 2008.
For example, it is often incorrectly assumed that with billions of people and strong technical skills, Asia (notably China and India) has a limitless supply of talent. The truth is that specific IT, engineering and management skills are in short supply. China is currently at full employment for skilled, technical, and managerial talent. In research conducted for the Adecco Institute, the Shanghai Academy of Social Science found that China’s labor market faces 5 to 10 year supply constraints in five key areas of skilled labor: management talent, English language skills, Research & Development personnel, senior and secondary technically skilled workers, and holders of professional certificates.
With a lack of the requisite skills for many corporate positions, organizations are holding back investments in their companies. Moreover, large multi-national organizations tend to win the battle for labor skills, which leaves many small and mid-sized firms with limited budgets in an even more difficult position.
With the labor shortage, you no longer hear “business process re-engineering” (BPR) because it was a failed process. It destroyed the trust between the employer and the employee, thus accentuating the labor shortage for companies who developed a reputation for treating their employees poorly when using BPR which was propagated by major consulting firms.
4. Companies will become more creative in work practices
Due to the labor shortage and the difficulty in finding qualified candidates, flexible work arrangements by companies are definitely on the rise. 60% of employers now offer flexible work plans. These arrangements will vary from shifted start and quit times, condensed work weeks, job sharing, telecommuting, providing baby sitting for the children of employees while they are at work and increased efforts on keeping the workforce healthy.
5. Companies will use financial penalties to enforce healthy lifestyles
It is interesting to note that a trend is emerging where a few companies are using financial penalties on employees who do not follow wellness guidelines. Fed up with the spiraling costs of health insurance, many companies are shifting their attention to advocating that their employees pursue healthier lifestyles. Insurance company MetLife says in a study that nearly 30 percent of all companies presently offer some form of wellness program to employees, including roughly half of large companies (those with at least 500 full-time employees). Wellness credits are a popular mechanism to encourage employees to take part. Overall, 17 percent of employers (including 31 percent of larger firms) give credits to employees who follow wellness guidelines like health checkups, nutrition programs, dieting and exercise. Conversely, one in 10 companies imposes financial penalties on employees who do not tow the line, including 19 percent of larger firms.
Companies are now encouraging employees to stop smoking, lose weight, lower cholesterol and exercise regularly. The employers, due to rising healthcare costs, want employees to reduce the odds of poor health. That’s the carrot. The stick will be more employers’ adoption of cost differentials in the employee share of health insurance premium costs. Employees that participate in healthful lifestyle programs and/or keep themselves healthy will be charged less.
6. Health-care insurance costs will continue to increase and more small-businesses will not be able to provide healthcare benefits
There has been rapid growth in the nation’s health care costs since 1970, when the average growth in health spending first exceeded the growth of the economy as a whole by an average of 2.5 percentage points. Insurance premiums rose 87% between 2000 and 2006, more than four times the growth in wages. With this type of growth, many employers no longer offer healthcare coverage. I expect to see more small to medium size businesses eliminate healthcare as a benefit due to the rising costs.
7. Companies will continue to emphasize retention
Retention programs are starting to get the attention they should have been given years ago. Human resource professionals are finally starting to realize it is less expensive to keep a good employee than to have to replace one that leaves! Human resource personnel will face much larger challenges in the coming years unless policies around recruiting and retention change. Keep in mind that the main reason a person leaves a company is their immediate supervisor. As the old saying goes, an employee joins a company but quits their boss!
Organizations that do a better job finding and deploying their human assets can increase productivity and be better positioned to succeed in the face of the labor shortage realities. This is good news for the “mature” worker who has been discriminated against by companies for the last decade.
As companies recognize the importance of retention, they are seeking assistance and certification of retention specialists like what The Herman Group now provides – see www.employeeretentionspecialist.com for more information.
8. Boomerang programs will increase
Boomerang (retired rehires) programs will increase as companies feel the steady pressure from the loss of more and more experienced workers and the pinch of the labor shortage. The numbers here aren’t large, but this is trend that is not going away, especially since the Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts that the number of workers over 54 will grow rapidly over the next few years while the number of young workers entering the labor force will decline.
9. Water shortages in the United States and internationally will affect economic growth and population distribution patterns
Competition for water resources among individuals, regions, and countries and associated human activities is occurring with the current world population. About 40 percent of the world’s people live in regions that directly compete for shared water resources. In China where more than 300 cities already are short of water, these shortages are intensifying. The same is occurring in the United States, between India and Pakistan, and in the Middle East.
Worldwide, water shortages are reflected in the per capita decline in irrigation used for food production in all regions of the world during the past twenty years. Water resources, critical for irrigation, are under great stress as populous cities, states, and countries require and withdraw more water from rivers, lakes, and aquifers every year. A major threat to maintaining future water supplies is the continuing over-draft of surface and ground water resources.
Diseases associated with water rob people of health, nutrients, and livelihood. This problem is most serious in developing countries. For example, about 90 per cent of the diseases occurring in developing countries result from a lack of clean water. Worldwide, about 4 billion cases of disease are contracted from water and approximately 6 million deaths are caused by water-borne disease each year.
Consider also the supplies of fresh water that are available not only for agriculture but also for industrial and public use. For example, water withdrawn from the Colorado River in several states for irrigation and other purposes results in the Colorado River being dry long before it reaches the Sea of Cortes, Mexico. No available technology is capable of doubling the flow of the Colorado River, although effective water conservation would be a help. Similarly, the shrinking ground water resources stored in vast aquifers cannot be refilled by human technology. Rainfall is the only supplier.
Water resources are crucial for domestic, industrial, agricultural, and environmental use. By controlling water resources, a country has the ability to control the economy and population. In today’s world, the availability of water determines economic growth. For instance, upstream regions or countries enjoy the benefit of using water flows first, while downstream areas might receive lesser amounts of any watersheds across state borders. Cooperation between riparian states can be highly problematic.
Industrial development or the expansion of agriculture can also cause water conflicts when the excessive use of water by one state affects the water supply of another. In India and China in particular, the massive and unregulated use of private pumps is depleting underground aquifers at unsustainable and unprecedented rates.
Urbanization has also disproportionately increased the demand for water for urban populations, when it is arguably their rural counterparts, with farms and livestock, who need more water. The problem of uneven water distribution and the deterioration in water quality due to pollution and chemical contamination all contribute to the emergence of tensions and conflicts both within and between states.
As water shortages continue to emerge in the United States, there will be reduced growth in areas that were growing rapidly, notably in the Southeast.
10. Security in the workplace will expand
The post-9/11 world brought more locked doors, surveillance cameras and employee badges to the workplace. The result is more attention is being given in employee manuals and policies to not only physical security, but also Internet security. Technological innovations like flash drives and cell phones that can take pictures, send e-mail, cruise the Internet and even watch television shows are giving workplace security experts a headache as they try to figure out how to control such instant connectivity.
11. Entrepreneurship will increase
Driven by a lack of trust in major companies due to past employer policies like business process reengineering, employees want more control over their own lives and futures. The scandals at Enron, WorldCom, Lincoln Savings and Loan, Tyco, and others have destroyed the trust that used to exist not only between investors and companies, but also between employees and companies. Business process reengineering only increased the distrust of large corporations by employees. In an effort to have better control of one’s destiny, many people are striking out as entrepreneurs.
12. There will be an increased rise of minority workers, notably Hispanic and women
The Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts that the Hispanic workforce is expected to represent 30 percent or American workers in the near future. The BLS also projects a more diverse workforce driven by tremendous population growth among Hispanics. This segment of the labor force will reach almost 27 million by 2016—a 30 percent increase over 2006. The Hispanic workforce is also a relatively young workforce, meaning companies will face unique challenges, experts note.
In 1950 about one in three women participated in the labor force. By 1998, nearly three of every five women of working age were in the labor force. Among women age 16 and over, the labor force participation rate was 33.9 percent in 1950, compared with 59.8 percent in 1998.
As the baby boomers move to retirement or part-time work, minority workers will gain a larger share of the workforce at all levels.
13. Employers will continue to be dissatisfied with public schools
Managers are frustrated with the low level of preparation of the entry level workforce coming out of our public school system. As a result, corporate executives are demanding greater performance from public schools and technical, community, and four-year colleges. It is disappointing that high school graduates can not read properly, write a letter, do basic math or received any training in history. A great historical strength of the American economy had been its educational system. But political correctness, combined with school boards more interested in pushing religion than education, school boards having to fight unnecessary ACLU suits and having to deal with unfunded federal mandates, have brought our educational system to a historic low. The public primary and secondary education system has to be improved if America is to maintain a strong economy and be able to compete in the international market place!
At the end of the year we will have fun seeing how many of these predictions come true. The bottom line is the market will continue to be a seller’s (candidate’s) market through 2008!
This month we celebrate Martin Luther King Day on January 21. Martin Luther King Day was founded as a holiday promoted by labor unions in contract negotiations. After King’s death in 1968, Rep. John Conyers introduced a bill in Congress to make King’s birthday a national holiday, highlighting King’s activism on behalf of trade unionists. Unions did most of the promotion for the holiday throughout the 1970s. In 1976, trade unionists helped to elect Jimmy Carter, who endorsed the King Day bill. At the White House Rose Garden on November 2, 1983, Reagan signed a bill creating a federal holiday to honor King. It was observed for the first time on January 20, 1986.
Happy Birthday to the United States Coast Guard! It was on January 28, 1915, when President Wilson signed the Act that established the United States Coast Guard. The Coast Guard has been an important player in maintaining the freedoms of the United States over the last 92 years and is a vital player in the current War on Terrorism. So when you meet a member of the Coast Guard this month, say Happy Birthday!
If you know of any companies that should be hiring veterans, transitioning military and their family members, please send in the referral so we may contact the company.
As always, if there is anything we at VetJobs can do for you, please do not hesitate to call or email.
Remember, Freedom Is Never Free – Support Our Armed Forces and Veterans
Best regards,
Ted Daywalt
President
/—January Veteran Eagle sponsor is BNSF Railway—-\
BNSF Railway Company is actively seeking applicants with military experience. At BNSF, we salute those with service, value their skills and welcome the unique experiences of our service members. From skilled craftsmen to first-line supervisors, we filled over 3,000 positions this year and expect to surpass that amount in 2006. BNSF offers challenging and rewarding career opportunities for those in transition from military to civilian life as well as veterans, retirees and members of National Guard and Reserve components.
For more than 150 years, BNSF Railway has been quietly delivering cars, coal, clothing, games and nearly anything else found in homes and businesses. Today, our focus is on using speed, agility and resourcefulness to help expand the global marketplace for goods and services. Through world-class people, processes and technology, BNSF Railway provides an easy, relevant choice for all types of shippers in a wide variety of locations. If you are seeking a challenging and rewarding career that appreciates your military experience, then visit http://www.bnsf.com/careers/military/index.html.
\—–Please visit your January Veteran Eagle sponsor BNSF Railway—-/
2. Army Reserve Study Participants Wanted – Impact of Reunification on Soldier Families
Army Reserve Families are being sought to participate in study: “Impact of Reunification on Soldier Families – A Longitudinal Study.” The study will look at the impact of the reunification process on soldier families from minus 3 months to 12 months post return of the soldier from Iraq. The families will only need to answer surveys that will be sent to them in pre-paid envelopes during the study. Families will agree to answer the same surveys over 4 periods: – 3 months prior to the return of the spouse; 3, 6 and 12 months after the return of the spouse. The study will compare responses from active duty and reserve families in the hope of identifying needs that can be implemented for future deployments. The study is in great need of obtaining an additional 250 army reserve families and will send the surveys with cover letters to all families that agree to be a part of the research. Families will be given a small token of our appreciation in the form of two $10 gift certificates during the course of the study. Families interested in participating in this study, please contact Dr. Peggy McNulty directly at 808-956-5226 or email schofieldstudy@hotmail.com
3. Workplace Pet Peeves
A survey released by Randstad USA – a workforce solutions company – found that loud talkers ranked high as an office “pet peeve” for U.S. adults.
Other office pet peeves include:
-Using a condescending tone to other coworkers – 44 percent
-Public reprimands – 37 percent
-Micromanaging – 34 percent
-Cell phones ringing at work – 30 percent
-Using speakerphones in public areas – 22 percent
-Personal conversations in the workplace – 11 percent
-Using personal digital devices (PDAs) during meetings – 9 percent
-Cursing in the office – 91 percent
The survey also found that personal works habits shifted this year. The Randstad survey shows that 38 percent of employed U.S. adults do not take a lunch breaks; 31 percent work on Sundays; 33 percent work overtime without additional compensation; and 91 percent don’t call in sick when they’re not ill. “Randstad’s workplace etiquette survey shows that American employees are disciplined in their jobs, skipping lunch breaks and working longer hours that cut into the weekend,” says Genia Spencer, managing director of operations for Randstad.
4. Forbes.com list of the ten best-paying blue-collar jobs
1.) Elevator Installers and Repairers: annual salary is reported to be about $63,620, or $30.59 an hour.
2.) Locomotive Engineers: annual salary is $57,990; $27.88 hourly.
3.) Electrical and Electronics Repairers, Powerhouse, Substation and Relay: annual salary reported to be $57,400, or $27.60 an hour.
4.) Railroad Conductors and Yard Masters: annual salary $55,530, or $26.70 an hour.
5.) Power Plant Operators: annual salary is $55,000, or $26.44 an hour.
6.) Ship Engineers: annual salary is $54,820, or $26.36 an hour.
7.) First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers: annual salary is $53,850, or $25.89 an hour.
8.) Gas Plant Operators: annual salary is reported to be $53,670, or $25.80 an hour.
9.) Farm, Ranch and Other Agricultural Managers: annual salary is projected to be $52,070, or $25.03 an hour.
10.) Transportation Inspectors: annual salary is reportedly $50,390, or $24.22 an hour.
5. National Suicide Prevention
If you or a veteran you know is experiencing an emotional crisis and need to talk with a trained professional, the VA National Suicide Prevention toll-free hotline number is 800-273-TALK (8255) is now available 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Callers will be immediately connected with a qualified and caring provider who can help. Here are some warning signs: threatening to hurt or kill yourself; looking for ways to kill yourself; seeking access to pills, weapons or other self destructive behavior; and talking about death, dying or suicide
The presence of these signs requires immediate attention. If you or a veteran you care about has been showing any of these signs, do not hesitate to call and ask for help. Additional warning signs may include: hopelessness; rage, anger, seeking revenge; acting reckless or engaging in risky activities seemingly without thinking; increasing alcohol or drug abuse; feeling trapped – like there is no way out; withdrawing from friends and family; anxiety, agitation, inability to sleep – or excessive sleepiness; dramatic mood swings; feeling there is no reason for living, no sense of purpose in life.
6. National Guard and Reserve mobilized as of January 2, 2008
The total number currently on active duty in support of the partial mobilization of the Army National Guard and Army Reserve is 70,320; Navy Reserve, 5,013; Air National Guard and Air Force Reserve, 5,925; Marine Corps Reserve, 8,668; and the Coast Guard Reserve, 326. This brings the total National Guard and Reserve personnel who have been mobilized to 90,252, including both units and individual augmentees. A cumulative roster of all National Guard and Reserve personnel, who are currently mobilized, can be found at http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Jan2008/d20080102ngr.pdf .
7. Significant events this month in military history
1777 – General George Washington defeats the British led by British General Lord Charles Cornwallis, at Princeton, New Jersey (War of Independence)
1911 – Naval Lieutenant Eugene Ely became the first man ever to land an airplane on the deck of a ship, the converted cruiser USS Pennsylvania, in San Francisco Bay.
1915 – Congress established the United States Coast Guard.
1923 – American occupation forces, stationed in Germany since the close of World War I, were recalled.
1942 – U.S. and Filipino troops complete their withdrawal to a new defensive line along the base of the Bataan peninsula (World War II)
1944 – Allies Land at Anzio, Italy (World War II)
1945 – The Battle of the Bulge ended (World War II)
1951 – Chinese communist forces captured Seoul, Korea, from United Nations troops (Korean War)
1951 – Operation Thunderbolt began (Korean War)
1959 – Fidel Castro took control of Cuba.
1966 – American forces move into the Mekong Delta for the first time (Vietnam War)
1967 – Operation Cedar Falls began against the Communist-held Iron Triangle area north of Saigon (Vietnam War)
1968 – Battle of Khe Sanh began (Vietnam War)
1968 – Tet Offensive began (Vietnam War)
1968 – Battle of Hue began (Vietnam War)
1973 – Signing of the Vietnam Peace Accord (Vietnam War)
1991 – Allies start Operation Desert Storm with attacks on Iraq (Persian Gulf War)
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